How accurate is IPO GMP?
Across 77 listed IPOs where IPO Khata recorded a last GMP, the actual listing gain was typically within 4 pts of what the GMP implied (median), and 57% of listings landed within 5 points.
On average the GMP implied +12.0% and the IPOs actually listed at +13.3%. But the average hides the misses: 16 IPOs listed more than 5 points below the GMP and 17 more than 5 points above.
By size of the GMP
| GMP implied | IPOs | Average GMP | Average actual listing | Typical miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GMP 0% or below | 26 | +0.0% | -2.6% | 1.9 pts |
| GMP 0% to 10% | 30 | +3.6% | +3.3% | 3.4 pts |
| GMP 10% to 25% | 9 | +17.1% | +23.8% | 10.8 pts |
| GMP above 25% | 12 | +55.4% | +64.9% | 19.2 pts |
Mainboard and SME
- Mainboard (28 IPOs): typical miss 3.4 pts.
- SME (49 IPOs): typical miss 4.3 pts.
The biggest misses
| IPO | GMP implied | Actual listing | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sollfege Smart Electronics | +18.2% | +89.8% | 71.6 pts |
| Adroit Industries | +41.0% | +75.4% | 34.3 pts |
| SRIT India | +45.4% | +13.8% | 31.5 pts |
| Orient Cables | +40.4% | +65.4% | 25.0 pts |
| Roopa Screen | +65.6% | +90.0% | 24.4 pts |
| Maxwell Engineering Solutions | +66.5% | +90.0% | 23.5 pts |
How this is worked out
For each IPO that has listed, the last grey market premium IPO Khata recorded is divided by the issue price to give the gain the GMP implied. It is compared with the actual listing gain, (listing price − issue price) ÷ issue price. The miss is the difference in percentage points. Only IPOs from this year and last with both figures are counted, so the sample grows as IPOs list. A small sample and a few big misses can move any average: treat this as a guide to how much weight GMP deserves, not a forecast.
What is GMP and how to calculate it · IPO GMP today · Recently listed IPOs
Information, not investment advice. GMP is an unofficial grey-market indicator; figures come from public sources (InvestorGain) and may be late or wrong. Not registered with or affiliated to SEBI, the exchanges, the registrars or InvestorGain.